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Smoke On The Water, A Fire In The Sky!

Well, conditions are brightening some this afternoon, but the milky appearance to the sky today was not due to clouds. It was actually smoke from the Canadian fires you've been hearing about being drawn down over our region by the winds above.

Our weekend weather outlook is still unsettled and there are still questions about when the rain will begin Saturday and whether it will be steady and sometimes heavy rain, or just showers and periods of rain. The North American Model (NAM) the the most bullish on the rain. It has been fairly consistent the last couple of days, and being this close to the event (it's more of a short-term model than the GFS & ECMWF), I tend to prefer it. My confidence in the specifics is not high though, because the operational runs of the Global Forecast System (GFS) model and the European model keep the coastal low a little further offshore, which results in the rain starting later, it being more intermittent, and less rain falling. For now I'm basing my forecast on the NAM, but will watch for changes in the solution during the next 24 hours.

Look for partly cloudy conditions tonight with lows mostly between 46-56 (a tad higher in NY City). Increasing cloudiness Saturday with rain reaching parts of far western NJ around 11 AM, NY City around 1 PM or so, then spreading across southern New England from west to east between 2 PM-6 PM, except parts of eastern MA & RI, where rain may not begin until after 6 PM. Mostly cloudy Sunday with some lingering showers around at times. Also the chance for a couple showers Monday and Tuesday. High temperatures Saturday about 65-70, with highs Sunday & Monday mostly in the 60's. Overnight lows mostly in the upper 40's-low 50's. Looks like milder temperatures starting Wednesday.

NAM 8 PM Saturday:

GFS 8 PM Saturday:

ECMWF 8 PM Saturday:

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