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Weekend Weather Update & Thoughts On Hermine

September 3, 2016

 

Hermine is no longer a tropical storm.  It has lost it's tropical characteristics and is now what is known as a "post-tropical storm.  Tropical Storm Warnings can still be issued for this type of storm though, and our coastal areas are currently under one.  If you don't live on the shore, I don't think it's going to be that bad. The weather across Long Island and coastal NJ will be worse that it will be elsewhere.  There will likely be some problems with minor wind damage, coastal flooding, beach erosion, etc. on Long Island and the NJ coast.  I think places along the immediate CT shore that usually experience some coastal flooding & beach erosion from light to moderate storms will see some of that with this one, too, but if you're not right on the beach, I don't think you will be severely impacted.  The wind will be coming out of the north to northeast which tends to push the water away from CT, toward Long Island.  Conditions on the CT shore are usually not as bad with this type of set-up than if the wind was coming in from the east or southeast.  The worst weather will be late Sunday night.  Peak winds will come down a bit Labor Day, but it still looks crummy.  I think most of our region will stay dry tonight and during most of the day Sunday.  The exception will be Long Island and the CT shore. Rain could reach Long Island Sunday afternoon and the CT shore by late afternoon/evening Sunday.  Across the interior (everybody else) you probably won't see any showers or rain until Sunday night (especially late) and Monday.

 

Sunday will be breezy with sustained winds picking up to 10-20 mph, with some higher gusts.  I think the strongest winds here will be Sunday night with sustained speeds of 15-25 mph (highest along the shore) and gusts over 30 mph on the CT shore, possibly to 40+ mph along some immediate shore points.  Conditions will be worse on Long Island.  The rain will be more widespread and sustained winds there will reach 25-35 mph Sunday night, with gust of 40-50 mph.  In fact there could even be gusts over 50 mph along parts of the south shore of L.I. and the eastern end.  The National Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for all of Long Island, coastal CT and coastal NJ.  Frankly, I feel this is a bit of overkill, especially for CT, as this warning indicates sustained wind speeds of 39-73 mph are coming.  I don't think the CT shore will see speeds that high, and even L.I. will probably be hard pressed to hit that range with sustained winds, but keep in mind that the mission of the NWS is to protect life & property and they err on the side of caution in these situations.  Of course, the other possibility is that I will be wrong and the winds will be stronger than I anticipate. (But seriously - what are the odds of that?)  ;)

 

Many areas north & west of Norwich, CT could get by with less than a half inch of rain through Monday. South & east of Norwich, half-inch plus amounts are more likely. There could be parts of eastern MA, RI, and southeast CT that get 1.00" or more of rain through Monday, based on the latest storm track.  The highest winds should come down a bit by Monday, but it will still be windy and there will still be showers and areas of rain around, so it doesn't look like a very good day.  Highs will be mostly in the 70's Sunday & Monday.

 

 

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