Messy Sunday Night & Early Monday

Low pressure will move out of the middle of the country into the Great Lakes Sunday night & Monday. A weak, secondary low may try to get going over NJ by Monday morning. As a result we can expect light snow to develop any time after 4:00 PM Sunday with a dusting/coating possible by 7:00 PM or 8:00 PM Sunday evening. There will be a change to mixed precipitation and rain late Sunday night into Monday. By the Monday morning commute, it may just be rain along the shoreline but further inland there will likely still be snow & ice occurring. Depending how fast the warmer air gets in, the coast could get by with an inch or less of snow. Further inland, 1"-3" amounts will be more common, with 3"-6" more likely in the higher elevations of southern New England and southeastern NY, where the changeover from snow to mixed precipitation will take longer. ALSO: The European model's operational run is a bit wetter & colder than the NAM & GFS. If its latest run verifies, snow amounts would be more like 1"-3" along the coast and 3"-6" inland, with a few higher amounts across some higher elevations. It's still too early to dismiss either of these two scenarios. I'd say it's about 50/50 which scenario plays out. Cold tonight with lows 15-25. Highs in the 30's Saturday. Lows mostly 15-25 again Saturday night. Sunday's highs in the 30's (some highs in the 20's across higher elevations both Saturday & Sunday). Precipitation changes to rain during Monday and tapers off during the afternoon with highs in the 40's except 50 on parts of Long Island & NYC and some 30's in northern MA.