How Much?

The map above represents my best estimate as of 1:30 PM. The models have come into somewhat of a consensus during the past 24 hours, however there are still differences regarding the exact track this storm will take , which is going to affect who gets how much snow. Although the exact amounts of snowfall are still subject to change (as always), the following now appears likely:

1) The snow will likely begin in NY City by 1:00 A.M.-2:00 A.M. Tuesday morning and spread north & east, reaching all of eastern MA by 7:00 A.M.-8:00 A.M. The precipitation will taper off from south to north Tuesday evening.

2) The snow will become heavy. There will likely be mixing with, then a change to rain in the green shaded areas, and some of the dark blue shaded areas on the above map. North & west of Hartford, CT the precipitation is likely to be all snow. From Hartford, south & east there is likely to be some mixing with or changing to sleet (and rain if you go far enough south & east) before the precipitation tapers off. This will keep snow accumulations down a bit, however it will add weight to the snow, make for more of a mess, and in places when the snowpack becomes wet, it will freeze solid by Tuesday night.

3) It is going to be windy. Northeast to north winds will increase to 20-30 mph Tuesday, with gusts over 40 mph. Coastal locations in southeastern New England and eastern Long Island could see some gusts of 50-60+ mph. The National Weather Service has some portions of the region that are south & east of Hartford, CT under a Blizzard Watch or Warning. Blizzard conditions have nothing to do with snowfall amounts. Blizzard conditions are defined as at least 3 consecutive hours where the visibility is reduced to 1/4 mile or less due to falling and/or blowing snow and winds sustained at or frequently gusting to 35+ mph.

4) There is likely to be some coastal flooding with this storm. I would expect east-facing coasts to see the worst of that.

5) The lines on the above map are not set in stone. They may have to be tweaked based on further refinement of the precise storm track. Is there any chance this storm would miss us? At this point, that would be very unlikely. The storm is a go and tomorrow will likely be a nasty day regardless of where you live in southern New England, southeastern NY, or northern/central NJ.

If you have questions that I haven't addressed here, feel free to post them on my Facebook page at www.facebook.com/bobcoxweather