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Hurricane Update

September 2, 2017

1) Remnant moisture from what's left of the system formerly known as Hurricane Harvey will bring periods of rain to our region late tonight & Sunday.

 

2) Hurricane Irma is still far out at sea.  It is currently small in size, with maximum sustained wind up to 110 mph. This makes Irma a category 2 hurricane.

 

3) The most likely track will probably take the storm to near the southeastern U.S. coast by September 9th or 10th.  It is still too early to be confident whether it makes landfall there, moves up the coast, or curves out to sea.  Right now I'm thinking it comes up the coast or curves out to sea. (See spaghetti plots below).

 

4) The National Hurricane Center is still forecasting Irma to become a category 4 hurricane with sustained wind up to 130 mph by Wednesday morning, however there is a wide range in the intensity forecasts between different models. Hurricane intensity is more difficult to predict than hurricane tracks.

 

GFS Ensemble Member Plots:

 

 

ECMWF Enemble Member Plots:

 

 

 

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