The latest operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF models both have the center of Hurricane Irma making landfall in North Carolina on September 11th (GFS) or early on September 12th (ECMWF). Although these solutions have varied significantly over the past few days, there is a little more of a consensus between the operation runs and their emsemble members now. This does not mean that the projected track won't change. It wouldn't be surprising if it does. If it is going to make landfall on the east coast, the storm is till more than a week away. However, east coast residents and anyone planning travel to the Bahamas should continue to monitor the progress of Hurricane Irma.
Hurricane Irma has gained a little strength since yesterday. Maximum sustained winds are now up to 115 mph, making Irma a category 3 hurricane. It is centered 885 miles east of the Leeward Islands. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting the hurricane's intensity to peak at category 4 level, with sustained wind up to 140 miles per hour overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday.
GFS Operational Forecast For 11:00 A.M. EDT Moday, September 11th:
GFS Spaghetti Plot of Ensemble Members:
ECMWF Operational Forecast For 8 PM September 11th:
ECMWF Spaghetti Plot of Ensemble Members: