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The highest wind gust I've seen so far is 120 mph reported from Big Pine Key. Ground reports are showing tree damage and some flooding in south Florida. A short time ago a large crane on top of a building in Miami was blow over. The latest advisory from the NHC indicates that the maximum sustained wind in Irma was 130 mph, with gusts to 160 mph. Its been my experience that the peak winds from reporting stations on the ground usually don't get up to the levels that are measured by hurricane hunter aircraft, however this storm is and will continue to have a significant impact on Florida today and tomorrow, and even Georgia and Alabama Monday. Here's the good news and the bad news as of this morning. The good (relatively) news: The storm never regained its original strength after interacting with the Cuban coast. This is a major hurricane, but it would be a lot worse if the wind was 50 mph higher like it was when the storm's intensity peaked. Another plus - that strongest & highest storm surge will likely push into the Florida Everglades. It would have been much worse if that maximum surge was pushing into Miami/Ft. Lauderdale where population and infrastructure is dense. Here's the bad (potentially) news: The ECMWF model which has done very well with this system so far is tracking the center slightly further west again. This keeps the center near the western Florida coast, frequently over the water and tracks it right over Tampa after midnight tonight. If the center tracks a little west of Tampa, there will likely be serious problems with storm surge there. It will be much better if the center tracks a little east of Tampa, but even then there will be some storm surge behind the center after the wind direction swings around to the west/southwest. The official NHC forecast track is basically right up along the west coast (below). Right now it is moving due north.


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ECMWF Forecast 2 AM Monday:


NHC Forecast


Latest NHC Public Advisory



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