What Effects Will Hurricane Jose Have On Our Area?

September 18, 2017

As of 8:00 A.M. Hurricane Jose was centered 270 miles East-Southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.  Maximum Sustained wind is up to 85 mph and it is moving toward the north at 9 mph. Minimum central pressure is 976 millibars/28.82 inches of mercury.  The center of Jose will not make landfall in New York or New England, however it will come close enough to us to produce some fringe effects Tuesday & Wednesday.  The storm will tend to weaken as it moves north.  Periods of rain will begin across Long Island and southeastern New England late tonight, then spread north & west during Tuesday.  Once the initial push of rain tapers off, the next area of significant rain may stay confined mostly to southeastern New England (i.e. Cape Cod, coastal Rhode Island, lighter rain back into eastern Connecticut) Tuesday night into Wednesday. The wind will increase during Tuesday and most likely peak late Tuesday night into Wednesday.  Unless there is a change in the storm track, I'm thinking that the strongest wind in southeastern CT and on Long Island will be from the northeast to north at about 20 mph, with gusts up to 40-45 mph.  The Hartford area will probably see 15 mph wind with gusts to 30-40 mph.  In the far northwestern corner of CT and adjacent areas of NY state, gusts will probably not exceed 25-30 mph.  On the other hand, on the outer Cape (Cod), sustained wind could reached 45 mph by Wednesday, with gusts to 58 mph.  A tropical storm watch is in effect across the shaded areas in the images below (click image for larger view). 

 

It looks like the storm center will stay far enough offshore to confine the really heavy rain to southeastern New England.  Parts of Cape Cod could see 8.0" of rain!  On the other hand, many parts of Connecticut and southeastern New York may get by with less than 1.0" of rain.  Amounts exceeding 1.5" seem more likely in parts of CT near the RI border and eastern Long Island.  Overall, it looks like a near miss with fringe effects, however you may feel differently if you are in southeastern New England and especially Cape Cod.  The worst of it will likely be late Tuesday night into Wednesday, however most of the rain in areas north & west of southeastern New England/eastern Long Island may actually fall Tuesday.  Here is the forecast rainfall from the NAM and GFs models.  Notice the large drop off in amounts as you move from east to west.

 

 

Forecast position of Jose Wednesday 2 PM:

 

It still appears that after reaching this position Wednesday, Jose may execute a loop-the-loop and make landfall in the mid-Atlantic states early next week.  We will also be watching Hurricane Maria which is expected to become a major hurricane soon and is taking aim on Puerto Rico in the near term.

 

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