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A cold front approaching from the northwest will move across the area this afternoon. Out ahead of the front, a southwest wind will produce unseasonably mild weather today, with high temperatures in the 60's. Showers and areas of rain will become more widespread this afternoon as the front arrives and there could be a rumble of thunder. Today will be, by far, the mildest day of the week. Temperatures will drop tonight, behind the front, and not look back for the rest of the week. Lows tonight will be in the 30's, but a gusty northwest wind will make it feel colder. Highs Tuesday will hold between 47-54 degrees. A wave of low pressure moving along the front Tuesday night might throw some light rain or snow or rain/snow showers up our way. I'd estimate the chance of that precipitation reaching us to be at most, about 50% from the southern New England coast southward and about 30%-35% across interior southern New England and interior southeastern New York. Most of the modeling other than the NAM (North American Mesoscale Model) keeps us dry. The second half of the week looks mostly dry, however an Arctic cold front will sweep across the region Thursday night, resulting in windy & cold weather Friday, with highs only in the 30's!
Below: SREF (Short Rang Ensemble Forecast) probability of precipitation Tuesday Night