Nor'easter #4 Update

The amount of snow we receive from Wednesday's storm will depend on how effectively (or ineffectively) the dry air associated with a high pressure center over Ontario Province that has established itself across New England is at holding off the precipitation and exactly where the mid-level low pressure area picks up the developing surface low offshore. This forecast is subject to change as more data becomes available about those interactions.

1. Some scattered areas of light snow and or sleet may materialize late tonight (i.e. toward dawn), however I don't anticipate any major weather-related problems with the morning commute Wednesday. In places where some light precipitation has/is occurring at that time there won't be much accumulation. Watch for slick spots on untreated roads where precipitation is occurring or has occurred.

2. Snow will develop generally, from south to north during Wednesday. Parts of northern CT may not see any accumulating snow until late in the day.

3. Wind will increase from the northeast to north tomorrow, with gusts to 30+ mph possible, and maybe 40 mph in southeastern CT.

4. Looks like snow will accumulate pretty readily Wednesday evening into Wednesday night for a while, before tapering toward Thursday morning. See map above for my accumulation forecast. Forecasting rain and snow amounts is one of the most difficult things to do accurately as they can be highly variable and are affected by many different factors. The forecast map above is likely too general/too homogeneous compared to what will actually occur, even if the general pattern verifies.

5. The accumulating snow should be over in CT by, or shortly after sunrise Thursday. Some breaks in the clouds will follow and conditions will remain windy.