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Update on Thursday's Snowfall

November 14, 2018

I haven't changed anything about the forecast for tomorrow and tomorrow night in the last 24 hours.  Having said that, keep in mind that these forecasts are not static.  I don't expect specific details of forecasts to remain unchanged and you shouldn't either.  The atmosphere is constantly changing and as probabilities shift, tweaks and changes will me made to the outlook.  Today will be mostly dry, cold & windy, however some towns will see a flurry or two as the tail end of a band of lake effect snow that stretches across NY state into southern New England drifts southward and dissipates. Northwest winds will increase to 10-20 mph, with some gust over 30 mph.  The heating of the sun will be offset by colder air advecting into the region.  The result will be temperatures remaining in the 30's today and feeling more like the 20's.  Wind will diminish tonight and lows will drop into the teens-low 20's under a partly cloudy sky.  Clouds will increase and thicken Thursday.  It looks like snow will spread across the state from southwest to northeast between roughly 3 pm-7 pm Thursday.  I'm still estimating 1"-3" of accumulation south & east of Hartford and 3"-6" across the northwest hills before the snow mixes with and changes to sleet and rain Thursday night.  Lows Thursday night will be in the upper 20's-low 30's, however temperatures will tend to drift up during the night.  Some lingering rain around Friday morning, and it may still be cold enough in the northwest hills for some mixed precipitation.  A clearing trend will develop Friday afternoon.  Highs will try to reach 40.

 

Below are current snowfall forecasts from 5 different models:

 

NAM (North American Mesoscale Model)

 

 

GFS (Global Forecast System)

 

 

GEM (Canadian)

 

 

ECMWF (European Model)

 

 

UKMET (British Model)

 

 

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