Severe Weather Possible In Parts Of New England And Upstate NY Today, May 17, 2025

A dynamic weather pattern is set to unfold across Southern New England and the New York City Metropolitan Area Saturday. Driven by an upper-level low pressure system over the Great Lakes, the region will experience a mix of showers, thunderstorms, and potential severe weather today, followed by cooler and drier conditions early next week. Unsettled weather is expected to return by midweek, bringing significant rain and gusty winds. Below is a detailed breakdown of the expected weather conditions.

Saturday, May 17: Active Weather with Severe Thunderstorm Potential

Morning (Until Noon):

• Conditions: The day begins with widespread low clouds and fog across Southern New England and parts of the NYC Metro area, reducing visibility and creating a gray, overcast start. Fog may linger longer over coastal areas and waters.

• Showers and Thunderstorms: A first round of scattered showers and thunderstorms is expected to move from west to east between 9 AM and noon. These storms, originating from activity in western Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia, will track across eastern New York, western New England, and into central Massachusetts and Connecticut. While not expected to be severe, these storms could produce lightning, brief downpours, and small hail. The NYC Metro area has a lower chance of morning storms, but isolated activity is possible in northeast New Jersey and the Lower Hudson Valley.

• Temperatures: Morning temperatures will be mild, in the 60s, with dewpoints in the mid-60s, contributing to a humid feel.

• Uncertainty: The exact coverage of morning storms remains uncertain, with some models suggesting activity may stay south of the region or over coastal waters.

  
  
  
  

Afternoon and Evening (Noon–8 PM):

• Conditions: Low clouds may begin to break in western New England and parts of the NYC Metro area by early afternoon, allowing for some heating and destabilization of the atmosphere. Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island may remain cloudier, limiting storm potential.

• Severe Thunderstorm Threat: A second round of thunderstorms is expected to develop or move into western and central Massachusetts, Connecticut, and eastern New York between 2 PM and 8 PM. These storms have a higher chance of becoming severe, particularly in the Berkshires, Worcester County, Tolland and Hartford Counties in Connecticut, and across northeast New Jersey, the Lower Hudson Valley, and interior southern Connecticut. Key hazards include:

  • Damaging Winds: Gusts exceeding 58 mph are the primary concern.

  • Large Hail: Hail up to 1 inch in diameter is possible.

  • Tornado Risk: A low (less than 2% in eastern NY, slightly higher in interior Southern New England) chance of an isolated tornado exists due to curved low-level hodographs.

• Storm Coverage: Storms are expected to form in a broken line, moving quickly from west to east. Not all areas will experience severe weather, but those in the Slight Risk zone (as defined by the Storm Prediction Center) should remain vigilant. Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island have a lower chance of severe storms due to persistent cloud cover and reduced instability.

• NYC Metro Specifics: The greatest severe weather threat in the NYC Metro area is in northeast New Jersey, the Lower Hudson Valley, and interior southern Connecticut, where MLCAPE values could reach 1500–2000 J/kg and 0–6 km bulk shear of 35–40 knots supports organized convection. New York City itself has a lower risk but could see gusty winds up to 30 mph and isolated storms.

• Temperatures: Highs will reach the upper 70s to near 80°F in the Connecticut Valley and parts of the NYC Metro area, with upper 60s to low 70s along the southern coast of New England and Long Island. The humid airmass will make it feel warmer.

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Night (After 8 PM):

• Conditions: Thunderstorm activity will diminish after sunset as a cold front moves through, ushering in a drier and less humid airmass. Skies will remain partly cloudy, but low clouds and fog should dissipate.

• Temperatures: Lows will drop into the 50s, with dewpoints falling to the 40s and low 50s, signaling a noticeable decrease in humidity.

• Precipitation: Lingering scattered showers are possible overnight, especially in eastern New York and higher terrain areas of western New England.

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Key Actions for Saturday:

• Stay weather-aware, especially in western and central Massachusetts, Connecticut, eastern New York, and the NYC Metro’s interior areas.

• Have multiple ways to receive severe weather warnings (e.g., NOAA Weather Radio, smartphone alerts).

• Secure loose outdoor items to prepare for potential strong winds.

• Clear drainage areas to mitigate flash flooding risks in poorly drained urban areas.

• If outdoors, have a plan to move indoors if thunder is heard.

Source: NWS Technical Discussions From NYC, BOS & ALB Offices.