Today's Weather Outlook For The U.S. - May 14, 2025

Surface Forecast 1800 UTC Today

A dynamic weather pattern is unfolding across the United States today, driven by a powerful upper-level trough sweeping through the Central U.S. This system is sparking severe thunderstorms, potential flash flooding, and wintry precipitation in some regions, while dangerous heat grips Texas and fire weather risks elevate in the Southwest.

Severe Thunderstorms and Flash Flooding: Northern Plains to Midwest

A robust upper-level trough, currently centered over the Intermountain West, is driving a strengthening low-pressure system at the surface. This low will intensify over the Northern and Central Plains today before tracking into the Upper Midwest by Thursday, becoming occluded. The system is accompanied by a warm front lifting across the South-Central U.S., a dry line forming in the Southern Plains, and cold fronts pushing south and east through the Plains and Mississippi Valley.

This setup is primed for severe thunderstorms across the Northern and Central Plains today, with the threat shifting to the Midwest on Thursday. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted areas from Nebraska to the Dakotas for potential severe weather, with hazards including:

• Large hail: Storms may produce hailstones exceeding one inch in diameter.

• Damaging wind gusts: Gusts could exceed 60-70 mph in the strongest storms.

• Tornadoes: A few tornadoes are possible, particularly in the Northern Plains where wind shear is favorable.

  
  

In addition to severe weather, heavy rainfall from these storms raises concerns for flash flooding. A Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in place for portions of the Northern Plains, particularly western South Dakota. A line of convection is expected to develop this afternoon, moving slowly eastward. Embedded storm cells may “train” (move repeatedly over the same area), leading to localized rainfall totals of 1-2 inches in a short period. While this could cause isolated flash flooding, the risk is tempered by severe drought conditions and extremely dry soils in the Dakotas, which can absorb significant rainfall before flooding occurs.

The Upper Midwest, including Minnesota and Wisconsin, will see persistent showers on Friday as the surface low lingers. A secondary cold front will trigger additional showers and thunderstorms in the Ohio and Mid-Mississippi Valleys Friday afternoon and evening, with another chance for severe storms and isolated flash flooding in these regions.

Dangerous Heat in Texas

While the Central U.S. grapples with storms, extreme heat is the dominant story in Texas. A persistent ridge of high pressure is locking in dangerously warm temperatures across the state, with highs expected to soar between 100-110°F in Central and South Texas and into the 90s elsewhere. These temperatures are well above average for mid-May and pose significant risks to anyone without access to effective cooling or adequate hydration.

Compounding the danger, overnight lows will offer little relief, only dropping into the 70s. This lack of nighttime cooling increases the risk of heat-related illnesses, particularly for vulnerable populations such as the elderly, children, and those working outdoors. The National Weather Service has issued Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings for much of Texas, urging residents to stay hydrated, avoid strenuous outdoor activity during peak heat, and seek air-conditioned environments.

This heatwave is expected to persist through early next week, with no immediate relief in sight. Urban areas like Houston, San Antonio, and Austin will experience particularly oppressive conditions due to the urban heat island effect.

Elevated to Critical Fire Weather in the Southwest

Warm, dry, and windy conditions are creating Elevated to Critical fire weather risks across the Southwest, including New Mexico, Arizona, and parts of West Texas. West of the dry line in the Southern Plains, relative humidity will plummet to the single digits and teens, while gusty winds of 20-30 mph develop in the wake of the deepening low-pressure system in the Plains. These conditions are ideal for rapid wildfire spread, and any ignition—whether from lightning or human activity—could lead to fast-moving fires.

The National Weather Service has issued Red Flag Warnings for portions of the Southwest, urging residents to avoid activities that could spark fires, such as outdoor burning or using spark-producing equipment. Firefighters are on high alert, and communities in fire-prone areas should remain vigilant and prepared for potential evacuations.

Wintry Precipitation in the Rockies

On the backside of the low-pressure system, cooler air is bringing wintry mixed precipitation and snow to the higher elevations of the Northern and Central Rockies, including parts of Montana, Wyoming, and Colorado. While accumulations are expected to be light to moderate, primarily above 6,000 feet, this could create slippery conditions on mountain passes and impact travel through Friday morning. Hikers and outdoor enthusiasts in these areas should prepare for rapidly changing conditions and colder-than-average temperatures.

Showers and Thunderstorms: Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley.

A warm front lifting along the East Coast is bringing showers and thunderstorms to the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley today into Thursday. A Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in place for parts of Maryland, Virginia, and West Virginia, where lingering moisture from a slow-moving storm system and moderate instability (MUCAPE values of 1,000-1,500 J/kg) will fuel renewed storm activity this afternoon.

While most areas are expected to see less than an inch of rain, stronger storms could produce localized totals approaching an inch, potentially leading to isolated flash flooding. Soils in the region are already saturated from 1-2 inches of rain yesterday, increasing the flood risk in low-lying areas and urban centers with poor drainage. However, the progressive nature of these storms should limit widespread flooding concerns.

Pacific Northwest: Precipitation Returns

The Pacific Northwest, including Washington and Oregon, will see a return of precipitation late this week as a frontal system approaches the coast. Expect increasing cloud cover today, followed by showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms by Thursday. This will bring much-needed moisture to the region, though heavy rainfall is not anticipated at this time.

Looking Ahead

The weather pattern across the U.S. will remain active through Friday. The Central U.S. will continue to see rounds of showers and thunderstorms, with severe weather and flash flooding risks persisting in the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Texas will remain locked in a dangerous heatwave, while the Southwest faces ongoing fire weather threats. Meanwhile, the Rockies will experience wintry conditions, and the East Coast and Pacific Northwest brace for wet weather.

Source: Weather Prediction Center

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