U.S. Weather Outlook This Week
- Bob Cox
- Jun 1
- 6 min read
The United States is set to experience a dynamic and varied weather pattern from June 1 to June 8, 2025, driven by a deep low-pressure system exiting New England, a strong Pacific cold front, and tropical moisture influences. The forecast period will feature significant weather hazards, including heavy rain, severe thunderstorms, flash flooding risks, gusty winds, and localized snow in higher elevations. The central U.S., Southwest, and South Florida are expected to see the most active weather, while the East and West Coasts will generally experience drier conditions under high-pressure systems. Temperature shifts will bring cooler air to the central U.S. and Rockies, with heat stress concerns emerging in the Southeast by mid-week.
Short-Term Forecast (June 1–3, 2025)
Day 1: Sunday, June 1, 2025 (12Z Sun – 12Z Mon)
Northeast:
A deep low-pressure system moving into southeastern Canada will lead to diminishing rain across interior New England as the system departs.
Gusty winds will persist across the Northeast due to the proximity and size of the cyclone.
Cooler Canadian air will funnel into the region, lowering temperatures significantly.
Southwest (Desert Southwest):
An upper-level low off the northern Baja coast will shift northeast, drawing moisture and instability into the Southwest.
Precipitable water values of 1.25–1.5 inches (above the 99th percentile) and MUCAPE of 250–750 J/kg will support rapid convection development.
Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected, particularly in Arizona’s low deserts, with heavy rain rates potentially exceeding 1 inch per hour (10–20% chance).
Pockets of 1–2 inches of rain are possible, raising a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall and flash flooding, especially in terrain-sensitive areas.
South-Central Plains, Tennessee Valley, and Southern Mid-Atlantic:
Scattered thunderstorms will develop along a forming frontal boundary trailing from a weak low-pressure wave.
Thunderstorm activity will extend from the south-central Plains to the Tennessee Valley and southern Mid-Atlantic but is expected to dissipate by Sunday night.
A cool, stable high-pressure system will dominate the eastern U.S. by Monday, bringing mostly fine weather.
Northern Rockies and High Plains:
A strong Pacific cold front will end a recent heatwave in the Northwest, bringing rain and gusty winds to the northern Rockies and High Plains by Sunday night.
Moisture from the Pacific front will interact with a high-pressure system from western Canada, producing widespread precipitation.
South Florida:
Tropical moisture near a stalled front will linger, with the potential for scattered showers but no significant heavy rainfall on this day.
Temperature Outlook:
Cooler air will dominate the Northeast and parts of the Northwest, while near-record high temperatures persist in the upper Midwest.
Day 2: Monday, June 2, 2025 (12Z Mon – 12Z Tue)
Central High Plains and Central Plains:
A weakening mid-level low from Baja will interact with a trough from Montana, driving a cold front southeastward.
Southerly low-level flow (40–50 kts at 850 mb) will boost precipitable water to 1.00–1.25 inches, overlapping with MUCAPE of 250–1000 J/kg.
Showers and severe thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday evening, spreading eastward across the northern Plains by Monday night.
Rainfall rates of 0.5–1 inch per hour are likely, with 2–3 inches of rain possible (locally higher). A Slight Risk of excessive rainfall and flash flooding is in place for eastern Colorado, Wyoming, southeast South Dakota, eastern/northeastern Nebraska, and west Texas.
Storms may produce large hail and damaging winds, particularly along the dryline in the southern High Plains.
Four Corners and Intermountain Region:
Residual moisture from Day 1 will fuel slow-moving storms, with terrain-enhanced rainfall posing a flash flooding risk in slot canyons and sensitive areas (FFG as low as 0.5 inch per hour).
South Florida:
An upper trough and weakening cold front will enhance ascent, with precipitable water near 2 inches and MUCAPE above 2000 J/kg.
Scattered to widespread heavy rain is expected, with potential for 3 inches of rainfall along the urbanized southeast corridor, leading to a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall and flash flooding.
Northern Rockies and High Plains:
Rain will continue from Sunday night, with gusty winds accompanying the Pacific cold front.
Temperature Outlook:
Much cooler air will move into the central Plains Monday night, dispelling near-record highs in the upper Midwest.
The eastern U.S. will remain cool and stable under high pressure.
Day 3: Tuesday, June 3, 2025 (12Z Tue – 12Z Wed)
Central U.S. (Texas to Great Lakes):
The southeastward-moving front will encounter a moist airmass, with precipitable water values reaching 2.2 inches in northern Texas and eastern Oklahoma and 2 inches near the southern Great Lakes.
Thunderstorms will produce rainfall rates of 1–2 inches per hour, with potential for repeat convection or cell training, increasing flash flooding risks.
A Slight Risk of excessive rainfall is forecast for parts of the Central U.S., particularly where heavy downpours are expected.
South Florida:
Lingering showers and thunderstorms are expected due to impulses rotating around a building Atlantic ridge.
A Slight Risk of excessive rainfall remains for the southern peninsula, with 2–3 inches of rain possible, though model uncertainty exists regarding exact placement.
Temperature Outlook:
Cooler air will continue to spread across the Plains, while the eastern U.S. begins to warm slightly.
Extended Forecast (June 4–8, 2025)
Overview:
A broad trough over the central U.S., flanked by ridges over the northeastern Pacific and western Atlantic, will drive progressive weather systems, focusing precipitation on the Midwest and Plains.
The East and West Coasts will generally remain drier under high-pressure influence.
Midwest and Plains:
A frontal system will advance through the Northern and Central Plains toward the Mississippi Valley, producing scattered to widespread convection.
Heavy rainfall is expected, with 3–7 inches forecast for Texas and Oklahoma and 3–5 inches for Iowa, Illinois, and Missouri.
A Slight Risk of excessive rainfall and flash flooding is maintained for Day 4 (June 4) and extended to Day 5 (June 5) for these regions, including western Arkansas.
Urban areas near the Iowa/Illinois border face a particular flash flood threat.
By the end of the week, the front and precipitation shield will move south/east into the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Mid-South.
South Florida:
A Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall is in place for Day 4 (June 4) due to continued tropical moisture near a dying oceanic boundary, with potential for heavy rain in southern portions.
Western U.S.:
Drier conditions are expected under the Pacific ridge, except in Wyoming’s mountains, where a few inches of snow are possible due to colder air behind the front.
Temperature Outlook:
The eastern U.S. will see temperatures rise to near or above normal, with daily highs in the 80s/90s, elevating the Heat Risk to Moderate in some regions. Precautions (e.g., increased water intake, time in air-conditioned spaces) are advised to avoid heat exhaustion or stroke.
South Texas will experience highs in the upper 90s to low 100s, with a 20–40% chance of heat index values reaching 110°F.
Cooler temperatures will follow the cold front, starting in the Rockies on Monday and spreading to the Plains, but will moderate later in the week.
The West will see near to slightly above-normal temperatures by week’s end.
Hazards Summary
Flash Flooding:
Southwest (Day 1): Slight Risk in Arizona due to heavy rain in terrain-sensitive areas.
Central High Plains and Central Plains (Day 2): Slight Risk for eastern Colorado, Wyoming, southeast South Dakota, eastern/northeastern Nebraska, and west Texas due to heavy rain and severe thunderstorms.
South Florida (Days 2–3): Slight Risk along the southeast urban corridor due to tropical moisture and heavy rain potential.
Central U.S. (Days 3–5): Slight Risk for Texas, Oklahoma, Iowa, Illinois, Missouri, and western Arkansas due to 3–7 inches of rain and urban flood risks.
Severe Thunderstorms:
Expected in the Central Plains (Days 2–3) with large hail and damaging winds, particularly along the dryline in the southern High Plains.
Gusty Winds:
Northeast (Day 1) due to the departing low-pressure system.
Northern Rockies/High Plains (Days 1–2) and Central Plains (Day 2) behind the Pacific cold front.
Heat Stress:
Southeast and South Texas (Days 4–8) with moderate Heat Risk and potential heat index values of 110°F in South Texas.
Snow:
Wyoming mountains (Days 4–5) with a few inches possible.
Conclusion
The period of June 1–8, 2025, will bring active weather to much of the central U.S., Southwest, and South Florida, driven by a Pacific cold front, tropical moisture, and a dynamic frontal system. Heavy rain, severe thunderstorms, and flash flooding are the primary concerns, particularly in the Plains, Midwest, and South Florida. The Northeast will see improving conditions after a windy and cool start, while the West Coast remains largely dry. Temperature contrasts will be notable, with cooler air in the central U.S. and increasing heat stress in the Southeast. Residents in affected areas should stay informed, prepare for potential flooding and severe weather, and take heat precautions where necessary.
For Further Information:
Monitor updates from the NWS Weather Prediction Center at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.
Check local NWS office alerts for specific regional warnings.
Prepared by: Grok 3, xAI, based on NWS WPC data, June 1, 2025.
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