Weather Outlook for Connecticut, New York City/Metropolitan Area, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island: May 15–21, 2025
- Bob Cox
- May 15
- 5 min read
A dynamic weather pattern is unfolding across Southern New England and the New York City metropolitan area through the weekend, driven by a weakening low-pressure system, frontal boundaries, and an approaching upper-level disturbance. Residents in Connecticut, the New York City metropolitan area, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island can expect a mix of scattered showers, possible thunderstorms, and humid conditions, with a shift to cooler, drier weather by early next week.
Thursday, May 15: Cloudy, Humid with Scattered Showers
On Thursday morning, a humid air mass and a weakening low-pressure system will bring scattered showers to parts of the region, particularly across eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. These showers, originating from activity over Long Island, may include brief downpours but are not expected to cause significant flooding. By mid-morning, showers should move offshore, leaving behind overcast skies and humid conditions.
The day will remain mostly cloudy, with the best chance for breaks in cloud cover in interior Southern New England, including western Connecticut and the Berkshires in Massachusetts. If clouds part in these areas, diurnally-driven showers or isolated thunderstorms could develop in the afternoon, particularly from Hartford to Worcester and Bedford. These storms may produce localized heavy downpours due to slow storm motion and high precipitable water content, though severe weather is not anticipated. Coastal areas, including Rhode Island, eastern Massachusetts, Long Island, and coastal Connecticut, are likely to remain cloudier and more stable, reducing the chance of thunderstorms.
High temperatures will range from the mid-60s along the coast (Long Island, coastal Connecticut, Rhode Island, and eastern Massachusetts) to the low to mid-70s inland, with the warmest readings in the Berkshires and interior Connecticut if cloud breaks occur. The New York City metropolitan area will see highs in the upper 60s to low 70s, cooler along the coast due to onshore flow.
Thursday Night: Showers and thunderstorms will dissipate by early evening. Light winds, recent rainfall, and high humidity will create conditions favorable for fog and stratus, potentially dense in some areas. Lows will be mild, ranging from the mid-50s to mid-60s across the region.
Friday, May 16: Foggy Start, Warming Up with Thunderstorm Potential
Friday will begin with widespread stratus and fog, which may linger into the mid to late morning, particularly in Rhode Island, eastern Massachusetts, and coastal Connecticut. As the fog clears, partly sunny skies are expected, allowing temperatures to climb into the 70s, with a few locations in northeast New Jersey and interior Connecticut potentially reaching the low 80s. The New York City metropolitan area will see highs in the mid to upper 70s.
A warm front approaching from the west will increase the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms late in the day, especially in western New England (western Massachusetts and western Connecticut) and parts of the New York City metropolitan area, including northeast New Jersey and the Lower Hudson Valley. A decaying line of showers and thunderstorms may move into central New York and could reach these areas by afternoon. While severe weather is not expected, stronger storms in central New York could bring gusty winds and downpours, with a slight chance of weakening activity reaching western parts of the region. Eastern areas, including Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts, are likely to remain drier.
Saturday, May 17: Warm and Unsettled with Severe Thunderstorm Risk
Saturday will be the most active weather day, as a warm front moves through in the morning, followed by a cold front in the afternoon or evening. Warm and humid conditions will prevail, with highs in the 70s to near 80°F across the region, and possibly low 80s in northeast New Jersey and the Hudson Valley. The New York City metropolitan area, Connecticut, western and central Massachusetts, and parts of Rhode Island could see scattered showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to severe, particularly in the afternoon and evening.
The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms across the region, with the greatest threat in western and central Massachusetts, western Connecticut, and eastern New York. A high-shear, low-CAPE environment, combined with stronger winds aloft, could support organized storms capable of producing damaging winds and large hail. The exact timing and intensity of these storms depend on the passage of the warm and cold fronts and the degree of daytime heating. Coastal areas, including Rhode Island and eastern Massachusetts, may see less intense activity due to more stable conditions.
By Saturday night, the cold front will sweep through, bringing an end to showers and thunderstorms. Conditions will turn breezier, cooler, and less humid overnight, with lows dropping into the mid-40s to mid-50s.
Sunday, May 18: Cooling Down with Lingering Showers
Sunday will mark the beginning of a cooling trend as the low-pressure system moves east of New England. Lingering cyclonic flow may produce isolated diurnally-driven showers in the afternoon, mainly in interior areas like western Massachusetts and eastern New York. Coastal regions, including Rhode Island, eastern Massachusetts, and the New York City metropolitan area, are likely to remain dry. Highs will be slightly cooler, ranging from the low to mid-70s, with some areas in western Massachusetts and Connecticut possibly dipping into the upper 60s.
Early Next Week (Monday–Wednesday, May 19–21): Drier and Cooler
A drier and cooler air mass will settle into the region early next week as high pressure builds and mid-level ridging develops. Monday and Tuesday will feature mostly dry conditions, with highs in the mid to upper 60s and lows in the 30s to 40s. Some lingering light showers may persist in the southern Adirondacks on Monday, but these will not affect most of the region.
By Wednesday, ensemble guidance suggests a 50% chance of rain showers as another low-pressure system approaches from the Great Lakes. However, nearby ridging may delay or weaken this system, keeping precipitation chances low for now. Highs on Wednesday will remain in the 60s, with lows in the 40s to 50s.
Regional Highlights
Connecticut: Expect scattered showers Thursday morning, with a chance of afternoon thunderstorms in the interior. Friday will be warm with possible late-day storms in western areas. Saturday brings a risk of severe thunderstorms, followed by cooler, drier conditions early next week.
New York City/Metropolitan Area: Cloudy and humid Thursday with isolated showers possible. Friday and Saturday will be warm, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially in northeast New Jersey and the Lower Hudson Valley. Cooler and drier by Sunday night.
Massachusetts: Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Thursday, mainly inland. Friday may see late-day storms in western areas, with a Marginal Risk of severe storms Saturday. Cooler and mostly dry early next week.
Rhode Island: Cloudy with morning showers Thursday, staying mostly cloudy and stable. Friday and Saturday will be warm with a low chance of storms, mainly inland. Drier and cooler early next week.
Summary
The weather across Connecticut, the New York City metropolitan area, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island will be unsettled through Saturday, featuring humid conditions, scattered showers, and a risk of thunderstorms, some potentially severe on Saturday. A cold front will usher in cooler, drier weather by Sunday, with high pressure dominating early next week. Residents should stay alert for possible heavy downpours and monitor updates for Saturday’s severe weather potential.
Source: National Weather Service technical discussions From NYC, BOS & ALB offices.
Comments