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Weather Outlook for Southern New England


Surface forecast weather map for 2 PM EDT Thursday
Forecast Surface Map For 18Z (2 PM EDT) Thursday


Thursday, June 5, 2025 – Hot and Humid with Isolated Thunderstorms


Southern New England will experience hot and increasingly humid conditions today under the influence of an upper-level ridge, which is promoting above-normal height fields and warm temperatures aloft (925 hPa temperatures around +25°C). Expect mostly sunny skies, though some smoke or haze may be present, particularly in the morning, as indicated by high-resolution models like the HRRR. However, this haze is not expected to significantly impact surface temperatures.


  • Temperatures and Heat Index: Highs will reach 90–95°F across much of the region, particularly in interior valleys away from the immediate coast. Coastal areas, influenced by localized sea breezes, and higher terrain will be slightly cooler, with highs in the mid-80s to low 90s. Dewpoints in the lower to mid-60s will push heat index values into the low to mid-90s, posing a moderate risk (Level 2 of 4 on the HeatRisk scale) for heat-sensitive individuals, especially given the early-season timing. While no heat advisories are in effect, precautions such as staying hydrated and avoiding prolonged outdoor exertion are recommended.


  • Precipitation: The upper-level ridge will limit large-scale forcing, resulting in a low chance of precipitation. However, modest instability (SBCAPE ~1000–1500 J/kg) and terrain-induced heating or weak sea breeze boundaries may trigger isolated showers or thunderstorms, particularly in the afternoon and evening. Areas near and south of I-90, as well as western and northern parts of the region (e.g., northern Fairfield/New Haven Counties, CT, and areas west/north of Albany, NY), have a slightly higher chance of seeing this activity. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms, with damaging wind gusts as the primary threat, though coverage will remain limited, and most locations will stay dry.


  • Winds and Other Conditions: Light south to southwest winds will prevail, with sea breezes possible along the coast. Some patchy fog or low clouds may develop near the south coast of Massachusetts and Rhode Island overnight but are unlikely to spread far inland.


Tonight: Any isolated showers or thunderstorms will dissipate after sunset due to the loss of daytime heating and limited upper-level support. Expect mild lows in the mid to upper 60s, with cooler temperatures (low 60s) near the south coast due to a modified marine airmass. Low clouds or fog patches may persist in coastal areas.


Friday, June 6, 2025 – Increased Shower and Thunderstorm Activity


A weakening upper-level ridge and an approaching cold front will bring a more active weather pattern to southern New England on Friday, with a higher likelihood of showers and thunderstorms, particularly north of the Connecticut/Rhode Island/Massachusetts border. A shortwave trough and a weak low-level convergence boundary will enhance lift, while a warm and humid airmass sets the stage for convective activity.


  • Temperatures and Humidity: Highs will be slightly cooler than Thursday, ranging from the low to mid-80s, due to increased cloud cover and precipitation. Dewpoints in the 60s will maintain a humid feel, with heat index values in the mid to upper 80s. The focus for warmer temperatures will be in southern areas, including the Capital Region and southward.

  • Precipitation and Severe Weather Potential: Instability (SBCAPE ~1500–2000 J/kg) and precipitable water values (PWATs) exceeding 1.5 inches will support the development of showers and thunderstorms, particularly in the afternoon and evening. The greatest risk for widespread activity is north of the CT/RI/MA border, especially across northern Massachusetts, where deeper moisture and better forcing will converge. Slow-moving storms, due to weak wind fields (effective shear ~20–30 knots), could produce torrential rainfall and localized street flooding. The SPC has issued a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather, with an isolated risk of strong to damaging wind gusts, particularly in western, central, and northern Massachusetts. The HREF model highlights elevated probabilities of 2–5 km updraft helicity (UH) swaths in these areas, supported by machine learning guidance and HRRR neural network outputs. Southern areas, while not immune to storms, are likely to see less widespread activity due to a more stable coastal airmass.

  • Winds: Light southwest to south winds will continue, with onshore flow increasing humidity near the coast. Storms may produce gusty winds, especially in northern areas.


Friday Night: Showers and thunderstorms may linger into the overnight hours, particularly along the stalled frontal boundary. Lows will remain mild, in the upper 50s to low 60s, with continued humidity.

Saturday, June 7, 2025 – Lingering Showers and Cooling Trend


A slow-moving cold front and an associated wave of low pressure will keep showers and a chance of thunderstorms in the forecast for Saturday, though the activity will gradually diminish as the front pushes eastward.


  • Temperatures: Highs will cool to the 70s across much of the region, with some areas, particularly in northern and western zones, possibly remaining in the low 70s due to cloud cover and precipitation. Drier air will begin filtering in by Saturday night, lowering dewpoints into the 50s.

  • Precipitation: Showers and isolated thunderstorms are likely, especially in the morning and early afternoon, with chances decreasing from west to east as the day progresses. Instability (SBCAPE ~1000–1200 J/kg) suggests a low chance of severe storms, but heavy rain remains possible in stronger cells. The NBM indicates chance to likely probabilities of precipitation, though model uncertainty exists regarding the timing of the front’s departure.

  • Winds: Winds will shift to the northwest behind the front, ushering in drier air by Saturday night.


Sunday through Monday, June 8–9, 2025 – Dry and Seasonable


High pressure building from the northwest will bring a brief period of mostly dry and seasonable weather to southern New England. Sunday will feature partly sunny skies and highs in the 70s, making for a pleasant early-summer day. Lows Sunday night will dip into the upper 50s to low 60s. Monday may see a few isolated showers or thunderstorms as a warm front approaches, but widespread activity is unlikely due to limited moisture and forcing. Highs will remain in the upper 70s to low 80s, with increasing humidity.


Tuesday through Wednesday, June 10–11, 2025 – Renewed Shower Chances


A broad upper trough centered near the Great Lakes and an approaching cold front will increase the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms by Tuesday, potentially lasting into Wednesday. Tuesday afternoon and evening appear to be the most likely period for widespread activity, with a 60% chance of rainfall and a possibility of strong thunderstorms given sufficient CAPE and shear. However, it’s too early to assess severe weather potential with confidence. Highs will remain in the upper 70s to low 80s, with muggy conditions (dewpoints in the 60s) until the front passes. Drier and less humid air will arrive by Wednesday afternoon, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.


Regional Variations  


  • Coastal Areas (e.g., Boston, Providence, New Haven): Sea breezes will moderate temperatures on Thursday and Friday, keeping highs slightly cooler than inland areas. Coastal stability may limit thunderstorm activity on Friday, with a focus on northern and interior zones.

  • Interior Valleys (e.g., Hartford, Springfield, Albany): The hottest temperatures and highest heat index values are expected here on Thursday, with a greater chance of thunderstorms on Friday, particularly in northern Massachusetts and areas west/north of Albany.

  • Higher Terrain (e.g., Berkshires, Green Mountains): Slightly cooler temperatures are expected due to elevation, but isolated thunderstorms are possible on Thursday and Friday, aided by terrain-induced lift.


Summary


Southern New England faces a hot and humid Thursday with isolated thunderstorm risks, followed by a more active Friday with widespread showers and thunderstorms, especially north of the CT/RI/MA border, where torrential rain and isolated severe weather are possible. Saturday will see lingering showers and cooler temperatures, transitioning to mostly dry and seasonable weather on Sunday and Monday. Shower and thunderstorm chances return Tuesday into Wednesday with the next frontal system. Residents should prepare for heat-related impacts today, stay weather-aware on Friday for potential heavy rain or severe storms, and monitor updates for early next week’s active weather.



Above based on NWS forecast discussions from offices in Norton, MA, Albany, NY, and NYC.

 
 
 

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