The groundhog's useless exercise in February is always greeted with considerable, unearned fanfare, however regardless of when the snow stops falling and when Spring "begins", it seems pretty much a given that in our neck of the woods, long stretches of awesome spring weather are usually hard to come by and Spring is frequently delayed until Summer arrives. There are so many potential killjoys out there, that it's hard to not run into one or two of them on a fairly regular basis. Lingering cold air from northerly latitudes, upper level troughs, blocking patterns, and of course the infamous ocean flow or sea-breeze coming in off the chilly, ocean water to our east and our south. We are in a

The Infamous "Omega Block"

The images below are forecasts of the 500 millibar geopotential heights and temperatures for Thursday morning and early Saturday afternoon. The 500 millibar level is a standard meteorological level aloft. It is roughly 18,000 feet above the ground, but it's height varies due to changing pressure. The geopotential heights are lines of constant height (how high you have to go to reach the 500 mb level). The wind pretty much flows parallel to these lines. The first image for Thursday morning shows a 500 mb trough (the axis of this trough is depicted by a black, dotted line) over our region, which is associated with cooler temperatures. Once this trough moves to the east, the temperature

Slick Evening & Night

Video below shows recent live radar on left juxtaposed with HRRR radar forecast on right. Snow will taper from northwest to southeast over the next few hours. Some additional small accumulations where snow is still falling & rain on Long Island will mix with/change to snow before ending. With lowering sun angle, roads are icing up again. Expect slick spots to persist into tonight as temperatures fall.

Details on Monday's Snow

The initial snowflakes from the second April snow system in 2 days will arrive CT in the 2 AM - 4 AM range and eastern MA around 6 AM - 8 AM. The precipitation may stop for a while in southern CT however, before redeveloping during the morning. I'm thinking that accumulations will be mostly 1"-3" in CT and maybe more like 3"-5" in MA. Near the shoreline there may be less than an inch and perhaps little or no snow accumulation in NY City and Long Island. It will probably be mostly rain in those areas. I have highlighted the HRRR model in black (below) to show the rain/snow line at 10 AM Monday. I think most of the snow accumulation in CT, RI, and southeastern MA will have occurred by 11

Is There Anyone Out There Who Likes Snow & Cold In April?

Cold front #1 arrives this evening along with the chance for a shower, downpour, or thundershower. That threat should end by 9 PM across most of the area. Low temperatures will be in the mid 40's-low 50's tonight. Saturday doesn't look great because the front will stall a bit just to our south & east and a wave of low pressure will come up. This will keep some showers around at times Saturday. Looks like the further south & east you go, the wetter it will tend to be, but that could change with the slightest change in the position of the front tomorrow. Highs mostly in the mid-upper 50's. The Arctic cold front comes through late in the day Saturday/Saturday evening. There will be some sh

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