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November 30, 2018

 Above: Hi-res NAM radar simulation for 3 PM this afternoon.

 Above: Hi-res NAM forecast for 1 A.M. Sunday.

A mid-level "short wave" disturbance will produce increasing cloudiness across the area today and some scattered rain and snow showers this afternoon and evening.  The precipitation will be light and disorganized.  There will likely be less than a tenth of an inch of liquid that falls and it is possible...

November 27, 2018

 Above: Hi-resolution NAM forecast surface pressure & precipitation at 1 PM today.

 Above: NAM 500 millibar (mid-level) forecast for 1 PM Today.

The low pressure system that dropped more than an inch of rain across much of the area will track northward into Maine and become "stacked" under the mid-level low that is moving over northern New England.  When this happens, the surfaces low more or less stalls, or...

November 19, 2018

  1.  Above: GFS 2-Meter Temperature anomaly for 1 PM Thursday (click to Enlarge).

  1. A band of light precipitation is producing light rain and freezing rain in western MA and areas of light rain mostly north of Hartford in CT. This precipitation will be over by noon.

  2. Areas of light rain/showers will redevelop in CT tonight with snow in western MA. The rain will end as a little snow in northern CT...

November 15, 2018

  1. Snow develops across Connecticut from southwest to northeast between roughly 3 pm-7 pm. 

  2. Snow will be heavy for a short time (1"-2" per hour snowfall rates).  Leaving snowfall forecast unchanged for now (1"-3" south & east of Hartford, 3"-6" north & west), however these amounts are highly dependent on when the sleet begins to mix in.  A 1 degree temperature change aloft could mean all the differenc...

November 14, 2018

I haven't changed anything about the forecast for tomorrow and tomorrow night in the last 24 hours.  Having said that, keep in mind that these forecasts are not static.  I don't expect specific details of forecasts to remain unchanged and you shouldn't either.  The atmosphere is constantly changing and as probabilities shift, tweaks and changes will me made to the outlook.  Today will be mostly dry, cold &...

November 13, 2018

Image above depicts the mean snow accumulation forecast by the GFS Ensemble (21 different model runs) Thursday night and should be taken with a grain of salt.  Other models are in the same ballpark as of this morning, however changes between now and Thursday would not be surprising.

  

Yes.  Our first accumulating snow of the season is looking more likely for Thursday evening/night.  A wet start to today...

November 12, 2018

You're probably not going to be worrying too much about global warming this week.  The week will have a winter feel to it much of the time.  We are starting today with a clear sky and temperatures in the 20's.  Some clouds will be mixing in by lunchtime & this afternoon.  Highs today in the upper 40's.  Clouds thicken tonight with rain developing late (probably within an hour of midnight across most of the...