A Look at the Thursday-Friday Snowfall Event

The latest available model runs indicate that areas of light snow and flurries will develop in parts of Connecticut Thursday morning, with snow reaching all areas of the state during the afternoon. Most of the snow looks to be light, however there may be some periods of moderate snow around during Thursday afternoon/evening. Indications are that light snow will continue through Thursday night and start to taper down/lighten up Friday morning. Accumulations of 2"-6" seem most likely, however if you like snow, some of the (global) models keep the snow around longer Friday, with 4"-8" amounts. The National Weather Service, as of this writing, is forecasting 6"-8" amounts to be common in CT. Also, comparing previous situations that were similar (analog guidance), 6"-8" amounts have occurred before, with this type of set up (every situation is unique, though). The images below show snowfall forecasts from the High Resolutions 3KM NAM model, the High Resolution Ensemble Forecast, and the National Blend of Models forecast, plus some analogs from the Cooperative Institute for Precipitation Systems (CIPS).

NAM 3KM

HREF

National Blend of Models

CIPS Analog Median Snowfall Based on top 15 Similar Past Events

Percentage of Top 15 Similar Events That Produced 6"+ Accumulation