Out Like A Blobfish...........

Well, the old saying says March comes in like a lion and goes out like a lamb. This year the month will end on a very ugly note, unless you fancy cold rain, mixed precipitation and snow. I understand the Blobfish was recently named the ugliest animal, so maybe the old saying should be tweeked a bit. Periods of precipitation will arrive after midnight, continued into Friday, Friday night, and Saturday, then slowly taper off from west-to-east Saturday afternoon and evening. The temperature will be in the 30's most of the time, but above freezing in many places. The exception will be the northern, higher elevations, where I fear there could be an extended period of icing from freezing rain

Much Colder Tomorrow

Enjoy the relatively comfortable afternoon. An Arctic cold front will move across the region overnight. As a result, high temperatures tomorrow will be in the low-mid 30's (some 20's across higher elevations), with a northwest wind at 15-25 mph & gusts over 30 mph producing wind-chills in the teens-low 20's. Low temperatures Wednesday night will drop into the teens, with wind-chills near 0.

Not Impressed

This system is looking very unimpressive. I'm thinking the liquid-equivalent (melted) precipitation amounts will be similar to the Short Range Ensemble Mean pictured above, or less. Some flurries or showers possible in western CT this afternoon, elsewhere late today or this evening. Some areas of light snow and/or flurries around tonight, lingering into part of Sunday across southeastern areas. Snow accumulation probably won't exceed a dusting to an inch or so in most places, except Cape Cod, where there could still be more than 3" and the areas of snow will linger into late Sunday night.

Arrgggh!

The weekend situation still has as much uncertainty now as it did yesterday. Just to give you a taste of this look at the two short-term model ensembles below. These are multiple model runs of the same model, after changing the initial conditions a little each time. By doing this, you can gauge how likely a forecast is to verify. The ensembles below (NCAR only goes through 8 PM Saturday, the SREF is weekend total) still show all possibilities ranging from no snow accumulation in parts of the region to 6 inches or more, depending on your location and how things play out. Based on everything I see on these and other arguing models, I would say that some light snow or rain (or flurries) become

What's The Deal With This Weekend?

I wouldn't believe any forecasts you hear about the weekend before tomorrow. A clipper dropping into the Great Lakes Saturday will give way to a developing low offshore. This low will be fairly distant from us, however there will be an inverted trough (see image above) extending back toward the original low for a while, which complicates things. Also, the upper-level low will be trying to catch up to the developing, offshore low. This will act to slow down it's forward speed to a meandering level. At this time, I'm thinking there will be some snow around Saturday afternoon or evening into part of Sunday. The models are still far apart on specifics, so you could get away with a dusting or not

Recap On Yesterday's Storm

Yesterday's storm came and went on the same date as day 3 of the blizzard of 1888. That storm produced 5 times as much snow (50.0") in Middletown as this one did. Yesterday's storm tracked close enough to the coast so as to bring the rain & sleet/snow line inland earlier than forecast the day before the storm. This effectively pulled the forecast snowbands about 50-60 miles further to the northwest. Evidence that this was occurring showed up when the snow first changed to sleet as far north as lower Fairfield County by 8 AM. Also, few places (if any) in CT saw actual blizzard conditions (3+ hours with visibilty <1/4 mile & 35+ mph wind). The map above and list below show reported snowf

How Much?

The map above represents my best estimate as of 1:30 PM. The models have come into somewhat of a consensus during the past 24 hours, however there are still differences regarding the exact track this storm will take , which is going to affect who gets how much snow. Although the exact amounts of snowfall are still subject to change (as always), the following now appears likely: 1) The snow will likely begin in NY City by 1:00 A.M.-2:00 A.M. Tuesday morning and spread north & east, reaching all of eastern MA by 7:00 A.M.-8:00 A.M. The precipitation will taper off from south to north Tuesday evening. 2) The snow will become heavy. There will likely be mixing with, then a change to rain in

???????

(Map above is the ECMWF model forecast for 1 PM Tuesday afternoon. The purple line that stretches from NY City to Durham, CT to south of Boston is roughly where the boundary between snow and mixed precipitation or rain is forecast to be at that time by this model. The other models currently have this line located furhter to the south & east for the same time period). There are still a number of issues that have yet to be resolved regarding Tuesday's storm via a model consensus. The exact track is till being debated, as is the placement of the rain/snow line during the height of the storm. While the potential for 20" of snow still exists in some places, the possibility of some areas seein

Tuesday: Death Blow or Hype?

With the ECMWF & GFS models continuing to forecast a significant coastal storm affecting the northeast Tuesday into Wednesday, rumors will no doubt be running rampant into the weekend. Here is what we know and what we don't know as of now (2:30 PM Friday). 1) With the medium range models remaining consistent in forecasting a significant storm to develop Tuesday, it is likely that this is going to happen. As of today, that storm does not exist. 2) As is always the case, the specific amount and type of precipitation that will fall where you are will depend on the exact track of the storm after it begins to form. It is too early too be confident about that yet. 3) These models are run as "en

Snow Update

Not making any changes to yesterday's forecast for tomorrow's snow. Many people asking about Tuesday's storm. At this point there is fairly good model consensus on a nor'easter, with the potential for a foot or more of snow in parts of the region, but there's still a lot of time between now & then and things could change. That system doesn't exist yet and won't for several days.

Winter Returns Friday

After enjoying temperatures between 55-60 this afternoon and a quiet day Thursday, our attention will turn to an area of low pressure that is going to slide out just to our south Friday morning, bringing a period of snow to the region starting during the predawn hours of Friday and ending by early Friday afternoon. There could be a little mixing with rain/sleet near the coast. Thursday looks partly sunny, with some increase in clouds during the afternoon and highs ranging from the upper 40's-low 50's (north) to the low-mid 50's (south). Lows will drop into the upper 20's-low 30's late Thursday night/early Friday morning. By the time the snow ends early Friday afternoon, accumulations wil

A (Cold) Blast From The Past

An Arctic cold front will arrive this evening. Chance for a flurry or snow squall late today/this evening with the front. Then, windy & colder tonight. Lows in the teens, with wind chills near or below 0 at times. Sun mixing with a few clouds Saturday. Windy & unseasonably cold with highs in the 20's inland to some low 30's shore but wind chills in the teens-low 20's. Northwest wind 15-25 mph with higher gusts. Lows in the single numbers & teens Saturday night. Sunny Sunday with highs in the 30's. Wind diminishing by afternoon/evening. Moderating temperatures next week.

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