Cooler After Today

Click To Enlarge This morning's weather map shows Tropical Storm Maria off the North Carolina coast and a cold front that stretches from Michigan to Texas. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect along parts of the North Carolina coast, however Maria will begin taking a sharp right-hand turn out to sea, during the next 24 hours. Meanwhile, the cold front to the west will approach and move into our area tonight. Behind the front, temperatures and humidity will drop to levels more typical of this time of year. There are areas of fog and low clouds affecting parts of the region this morning. After that burns off, it will be mostly sunny for a while today. Some clouds mixing in this afternoo

Summer Afterglow Continues

Image above shows 500 millibar level (roughly 18,000 feet above seal level today) at noon (click to enlarge). The high pressure ridge that has established itself across the eastern half of the U.S. will continue to maintain summery weather across the region through Wednesday. A side benefit of this ridge will be to send Hurricane Maria back out to sea, away from the east coast after Wednesday. Coastal North Carolina may feel some fringe effects by Wednesday, before the storm takes a right turn. High temperatures during the next few days will be in the 80's across most of the area, however seabreezes will develop, keeping temperatures along the shore (or dropping them into) the 70's. Local

Calendar Says Fall, Weather Maps Say Summer

Orion is one of my favorite constellations, but it was a little disconcerting to see it, along with the Pleiades riding high in the sky when I stepped out this morning. (Both are considered "Winter constellations"). It was also slightly surreal to be looking at them as a gusty north wind persisted that is being produced by what is now post-tropical cyclone Jose. The breezy conditions will continue today. Although there is some clear sky out there now, the circulation around Jose will probably try to throw some cloudiness back our way from time to time (and maybe a few showers across southeastern New England) after the sun comes up, so if we end up partly sunny today, we can consider ourse

Last Full Day of Summer

Sea level pressure, IR satellite & wind gusts (click to enlarge). Tropical storm Jose is centered about 150 miles southeast of Nantucket this morning. Maximum sustained wind is up to 60 mph. There will be enough dry air entrained into the circulation outside of this system so as to allow our weather to become partly sunny (remaining breezy) across much of the area today, however a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect across Cape Cod & the Islands. Humidity will decrease by this afternoon outside of the TS Warned areas, with dew points dropping into the 50's this afternoon. Jose is going to meander around for a while and probably backtrack a bit tomorrow. This could result in mostly cloud

Maria Making Landfall in P.R.

Image above Via Weatherunderground Maria - a strong Cat 4 hurricane with maximum sustained wind up to 155 mph is making landfall in Puerto Rico this morning. The storm will track northwest from there and then curve more to the north. It could bring fringe effects to coastal North Carolina early next week. I don't expect it to make landfall in the U.S., however fringe effects in southeastern New England can't be ruled out about a week from now. Here is the latest advisory from NHC. Meanwhile, Jose, now a tropical storm with max sustained wind up to 65 mph, continues to trend a little further south & east. This means its effects on our region will continue to be minimal. Some showers/are

No Way, Jose

Latest Radar & Wind Gusts: Hurricane Jose's most likely track continues to trend further south & east. As a result, we will only feel outer fringe effects in the form of some showers and periods of rain, which have already spread into southeastern portions of the region. The highest wind will not occur until Wednesday or even Thursday on Cape Cod (after most of the rain is over). In Groton, CT maximum wind could reach 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph or so by tomorrow. In Chatham, MA sustained wind could get up around 35-40 mph, with gusts over 60 mph on Thursday. Most of the region (not near the southeast coast) will see lighter wind speeds than that - maybe 12-20 mph, with gusts of 25-35 m

What Effects Will Hurricane Jose Have On Our Area?

As of 8:00 A.M. Hurricane Jose was centered 270 miles East-Southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Maximum Sustained wind is up to 85 mph and it is moving toward the north at 9 mph. Minimum central pressure is 976 millibars/28.82 inches of mercury. The center of Jose will not make landfall in New York or New England, however it will come close enough to us to produce some fringe effects Tuesday & Wednesday. The storm will tend to weaken as it moves north. Periods of rain will begin across Long Island and southeastern New England late tonight, then spread north & west during Tuesday. Once the initial push of rain tapers off, the next area of significant rain may stay confined mostly

Are We Getting A Hurricane?

Back on September 9th I posted that the GFS & ECMWF models were projecting Hurricane Jose to hang around for a while, then possibly move toward the northeastern U.S. Six days later and nothing has really changed. Jose is only half as strong as it was on the 9th in terms of maximum wind (now a tropical storm with wind up to 70 mph), however the forecast models still project it to get uncomfortably close to us early next week and the National Hurricane Center expects it to become a hurricane again shortly. If you take away one thing (in terms of forecasting) from Hurricane Irma it should be this: Hurricane forecasting has improved materially since the early days, however outlooks for hurric

It's Still Summer!

Click on Image For Larger View Summer seemed to end early this year, however it is staging a reprise here with warmer temperatures and higher humidity. The calendar says Autumn begins a week from tomorrow. Remnant moisture from what used to be Hurricane Irma is producing areas of rain and thundershowers to our west across portions of New York State and Pennsylvania, down into the Virginias. Some of this moisture will dry up as it slides east, however there will be the chance for a shower or thundershower this afternoon into the first half of tonight, and again tomorrow. It will remain warm and fairly humid (dewpoints in the 60's) through the weekend. Hurricane Jose is still threatening to

T Minus 0

The highest wind gust I've seen so far is 120 mph reported from Big Pine Key. Ground reports are showing tree damage and some flooding in south Florida. A short time ago a large crane on top of a building in Miami was blow over. The latest advisory from the NHC indicates that the maximum sustained wind in Irma was 130 mph, with gusts to 160 mph. Its been my experience that the peak winds from reporting stations on the ground usually don't get up to the levels that are measured by hurricane hunter aircraft, however this storm is and will continue to have a significant impact on Florida today and tomorrow, and even Georgia and Alabama Monday. Here's the good news and the bad news as of t

Don't Discount Jose

Hurricane Jose actually has higher maximum wind speeds than Hurricane Irma as of the 2 PM NHC update (145 mph vs. 125 mph). It is expected to meander around in the Atlantic Ocean for a number of days. It is WAY too early to take this too seriously, however I cannot resist posting where the GFS and ECMWF models are forecasting it to be in 10 days. Let the conspiracy theories begin! Click on Images For Larger View GFS ECMWF

Hurricane Irma: What Has Changed

The ECMWF model (the Euro) has been doing the best job among the various models so we will concentrate on it here. It has been consistently telling us that the storm would take a more western track than the other modeling projected and it appears that this is going to be the case. What this means is that the center of the hurricane is likely to take a track up along or just inside the WEST coast of Florida. Also, the timing has slowed down a bit. The weather is already deteriorating in the Florida Keys with the storm center still near the coast of Cuba. It will continue to do so. The Keys are going to take a MAJOR hit from this storm and it is not safe to be there. With the slower tim

Hurricane Irma Evening Update

The ECMWF model continues to track Irma a little further west than most of the other solutions. It brings the center onto land near Marco Island (south of Naples) Sunday. The NHC adjusted their official track forecast a bit to the west for this reason (both pictured below) and is the most likely track that will actually occur. Irma has sustained wind up to 155 mph (2 mph shy of Cat 5 strength). The NHC is forecasting the storm to remain at about the same strength (with some fluctuations) until Saturday night, when they have it strengthening back to Cat 5 with wind up to 160 mph. Here is the latest NHC public advisory. ECMWF Forecast 2 PM, Sunday: Current NHC Forecast: Notice on the graph

Hurricane Irma Threat Level:

The consensus between the models on the track Hurricane Irma will take continues to increase. The center of the storm is projected to be near the Florida Keys or the southern tip of Florida by 8:00 A.M. Sunday morning. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is forecasting the maximum sustained wind within the storm at that time to be 145 mph (Cat 4). From there the hurricane center is likely to travel northward - up across the entire Florida Peninsula (weakening some but remaining a hurricane most of the way) and then into Georgia Monday, weakening to a tropical storm at that point. While there is always the possibility of a last minute jog in the track or the intensity forecast being off

Evening Update on Hurricane Irma

The latest model runs continue to show some of the same biases we have been seeing and it is becoming increasingly likely that Florida will feel a significant impact from this storm. The ECMWF model continues to forecast the center of the storm to track west of the GFS track. The Euro basically brings the storm right up across the Florida Peninsula, reaching south Florida by early Sunday morning and southern Georgia by late Monday. The GFS model has the center east of Miami Sunday morning, then basically hugging the east coast of Florida most of the way up, and moving inland from the Georgia coast Monday morning (see annotated track forecasts in the image above). The official NHC forecast

Hurricane Irma May Want To Move North Along Florida's East Coast

Irma is still a powerful, category 5 hurricane with sustained wind up to 185 mph! The eyewall is now visible from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar (see image above). From NHC: "The eye of Irma passed over Barbuda, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin this morning, and will be moving over portions of the British and U.S. Virgin Islands shortly. A NOAA National Ocean Service observing site on Barbuda measured sustained winds of 103 kt with a gust to 135 kt earlier this morning before the anemometer failed. The station also reported a minimum pressure of 916.1 mb. A minimum pressure of 915.9 mb was reported on St. Barthelemy." A map of the NHC's forecast for Irma along with current watches and warn

Irma, Now a CAT 5, Thinking About Florida

11:00 AM Update: Max wind now up to 180 mph! Latest NOAA and US Air Force measurements show that the maximum sustained wind within Hurricane Irma has increased to 175 mph, making the storm an "extremely dangerous" category 5 hurricane! The center of Irma is about 270 miles east of Antigua. The most likely track at this time takes the center of Irma to just south of the Florida Keys by 2:00 A.M. Sunday. It is likely to curve sharply to the north after that, but the models are still debating whether the center will move north across the entire Florida Peninsula from there, move up along the Florida Gulf Coast, or go up Florida's east coast and then into the Carolinas. (Keep in mind the aver

Irma's Track Shifts West

The latest available model runs have shifted the forecast track of Hurricane Irma westward before the storm is expected to curve sharply to the north. This change results in the GFS operational run taking Irma into south Florida on September 11th and the ECMWF operational run making landfall with Irma near the South Carolina/North Carolina border on September 12th. The forecast track will continue to fluctuate over the next few days, however the chances that it will make landfall somewhere in the southeastern U.S. next week have increased. The National Hurricane Center's (NHC) forecast puts the center of Irma just north of Haiti Friday morning (175 mile average NHC track error on day 4) a

Is Hurricane Irma Looking At North Carolina?

The latest operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF models both have the center of Hurricane Irma making landfall in North Carolina on September 11th (GFS) or early on September 12th (ECMWF). Although these solutions have varied significantly over the past few days, there is a little more of a consensus between the operation runs and their emsemble members now. This does not mean that the projected track won't change. It wouldn't be surprising if it does. If it is going to make landfall on the east coast, the storm is till more than a week away. However, east coast residents and anyone planning travel to the Bahamas should continue to monitor the progress of Hurricane Irma. Hurricane Irma ha

Hurricane Update

1) Remnant moisture from what's left of the system formerly known as Hurricane Harvey will bring periods of rain to our region late tonight & Sunday. 2) Hurricane Irma is still far out at sea. It is currently small in size, with maximum sustained wind up to 110 mph. This makes Irma a category 2 hurricane. 3) The most likely track will probably take the storm to near the southeastern U.S. coast by September 9th or 10th. It is still too early to be confident whether it makes landfall there, moves up the coast, or curves out to sea. Right now I'm thinking it comes up the coast or curves out to sea. (See spaghetti plots below). 4) The National Hurricane Center is still forecasting Irma to bec

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