Lucking Out A Bit

Although the weekend weather still doesn't look like anything to jump up & down about, the wettest of the models yesterday (the NAM) has been backing off a bit over the last couple runs, as has the SREF (Short Range Ensemble Forecast). The NAM and SREF still bring measurable rain into NY City & Long Island after 5 PM today, although the other models keep the measurable rain further south. Odds are that most of southern New England will either stay completely dry through 7 PM or perhaps see a few, scattered showers (especially toward the coast) this evening. As you can see from the precipitation forecasts below, there is still some debate as to how much rain we actually see tonight into ea

Smoke On The Water, A Fire In The Sky!

Well, conditions are brightening some this afternoon, but the milky appearance to the sky today was not due to clouds. It was actually smoke from the Canadian fires you've been hearing about being drawn down over our region by the winds above. Our weekend weather outlook is still unsettled and there are still questions about when the rain will begin Saturday and whether it will be steady and sometimes heavy rain, or just showers and periods of rain. The North American Model (NAM) the the most bullish on the rain. It has been fairly consistent the last couple of days, and being this close to the event (it's more of a short-term model than the GFS & ECMWF), I tend to prefer it. My confiden

Why Do We Live In The Northeast Again?

The clouds out there this afternoon are the result of instability due to a trough and its associated pool of cool air aloft. There are a few showers as well - at this point mostly in central MA and northern CT. The chance for a shower or t-storm exists anywhere in the region through this evening, though the chances go up a bit as you head north. So MA will continue to have a higher chance than Long Island, but no one is totally out of the woods. Friday still looks like a real nice day with mostly sunny conditions and highs in the 70's as the trough moves away and high pressure at the surface dominates. However, yet another area of low pressure aloft will be developing to our west. This w

Mother Nature To Issue Temperature Beatdown To Area In 3 Stages

Well it seems this spring we are just not destined to keep the mild weather around long once it arrives. Between this evening and Sunday we will experience NOT 1, NOT 2, BUT 3! cold fronts passing across the region, resulting in progressively cooler temperatures and threats for rain. The first front, arriving this evening will produce areas of rain, showers, and the threat for a t-storm this afternoon and evening, with any rain ending before midnight. The second front arrives Saturday evening. It should be fairly nice for a while Saturday, although clouds will increase by afternoon. Areas of showers and the chance for thunder arrives in the late afternoon or evening. Sunday will be an u

Thursday Looks Sweeeet! Rain To Follow

We will likely see 100% of the possible sunshine again here Thursday as a ridge aloft and high pressure system at the surface maintain the regime of sinking, drying air over us. High temperatures in the 70's will be common. Some interior, low elevations (like say BDL) could touch 80 degrees, while shore point will hold closer to 70 (some upper 60's?) due to alight, onshore flow. As the high moves off to the east Friday, clouds will increase and some rain will fall in the afternoon as the first of 2 cold fronts approaches. Highs will be withing a couple degrees of 70. Another area of rain will follow late Saturday/Saturday night as the second front comes in. Highs will be well into the 60'

A Change on the Horizon! (Finally)

The evil upper-level low and blocking pattern that continues to prolong depressing weather across the region will keep throwing some periods of showers and rain our way, on & off through this evening. There will still be a couple of showers around from time to time tonight and Saturday, although there will also be periods when it isn't raining. With a little luck we will get some breaks of sun into the mix during Saturday as well. A change is on the horizon, though. A cold front will sweep across Sunday morning with some more showers/rain. However, conditions will improve by later Sunday morning and into the afternoon as a northwest breeze takes over. Drier air coming in on this flow wi

We're Stuck!

Yet another "Omega Block" is taking shape aloft this week. The result for us will be similar to a game of musical chairs when the music stops and you don't have a seat. In other words - we're left out in the cold and what you see is what you get for the next few days. There will be the chance for a couple showers, some drizzle/fog, and occasionally a period of rain for the rest of the week, but really nothing too organized. A lot of the time it won't be raining. High temperatures will be mostly in the 50's to about 60, with a few more low 60's later in the week Lots of 40's for overnight lows. Looks like we'll see widespread highs in the 60's this weekend but the chance for a shower

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